Elon Musk Military - Friday announced the death of two manned fighters in front of the largest consumer of these aircraft in the world, the US Air Force. The remarks were widely publicized by the defense media, with one media outlet describing them as "frank and brilliant". It was, but Musk is not a warrior and is not responsible for the country's security. "Charming" though his claims are, they are actually misleading at a time when modern manned combat aircraft need to deter and, if necessary, fight and win. Over the next several decades, air supremacy will depend on fifth and later generation aircraft, namely the F-35 and the Next Generation Air Dominance System (NGAD). There is no chance that any fleet technology will replace it.
Musk said, "The future is drone warfare. It's not that I want the future to be — it's just that the future will be... The age of fighters is over. Yes, the age of fighters is gone. These are drones." After his speech on Twitter, he took aim at the F-35 fighter jet. The competitor must be a remotely controlled humanoid fighter drone, but with maneuvers complemented by autonomy. He said in a tweet on Twitter that the F-35 would not stand a chance against it.
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Well, Mr. Musk, in fact, the manned combat aircraft will have a competitive advantage for decades to come. The sensor's ability to provide the 360-degree spherical situational awareness needed to win a dogfight, along with the computing power of the human brain, cannot be replicated in any drone today - or in the near future. At some point in the future, this may be possible for single-air combat at visual range, but not today, and certainly not anytime soon, in the whole range of complex scenarios that define air combat. This spectrum requires a lot more than just pulling a "G". Today, we cannot even provide the robust, reliable and secure communication between weapon systems in all areas, which is essential for effective combat coordination - regardless of whether a person is in the cockpit or not.
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To give a point of reference for the current state of AI in a much simpler scenario, let's take a look at Musk's self-driving cars, which are being tested today in a two-dimensional environment, rather than three dimensions like air or space, with known rules of the road, simple mechanics, and well-understood patterns of human behavior. . In April 2019, Musk said that by the end of the year, Teslas will achieve "full self-driving" capability. This did not happen.
In December 2019 alone, three Tesla Autopilot cars crashed. One of them ran a red light and crashed into another car, killing two people. On the same day, another crashed into a parked fire truck, killing one of Tesla's passengers. A third Tesla hits a police car on the highway. The point is, before we can bet our nation's security on a vision of an automated future that is not yet mature, we need proven, reliable, and available capabilities and capabilities now to meet the requirements of the National Defense Strategy.
In fact, the Air Force has been working on a high-performance autonomous fighter jet and related technologies that Musk has been promoting for some time. As a three-star Air Force general with the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle portfolio from 2007 to 2010, I developed the Air Force's first Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Strategic Plan outlining UAV goals and objectives from 2009 to 2047, the Forces centenary. weather.
While some of us believe we have much more to go on the path laid out in this plan than we do today, some challenges have slowed the journey—money, culture, immature technology, politics, and ethics. The use of artificial intelligence and autonomy elements in lethal actions poses particularly significant political and ethical challenges.
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Skyborg is a smart step in the direction we need to go. It is an artificial intelligence-based unmanned aerial vehicle to complement modern manned aerial vehicles - the "chain of trust". This human-machine integration is a practical, effective, and necessary step to meet the real-world requirements of the current national defense strategy, while bridging the gap to a future with more autonomous systems based on artificial intelligence.
Before we reach the uninhabited future described by the dreamers, there is an urgent need to recapitalize our aging Air Force of bombers, tankers and trainers with
Close to 30 years old - By comparison, the average American Airlines fleet is about 10 years old, and they don't pull 6 to 9 "G's" or G's per day like our fighter jets do. Age is to some extent a reflection of ability, and in this regard, the US military is bemused. As Director of the DIA, Lieutenant General Robert Ashley, explains, “…the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is on the verge of deploying some of the world’s most advanced weapon systems. And they are already leading the world in some areas.”
It's not just the probability that matters, because the potential is just as important to a successful defensive strategy. As the Air Force Command has stressed over the years, "The Air Force is too small for what the nation expects of us." The basic fact is that the Air Force operates the smallest and oldest aircraft it has ever used.
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Congress asked the Air Force what would be required to meet the requirements of the National Defense Strategy. After much research, he told Congress in 2018 that the Air Force would need 386 squadrons, compared to the current 312, to carry out missions that stem from a medium-risk national defense strategy.
Here's what Air Supremacy AF's plan says about the path we're on: "The projected force structure of the Air Force in 2030 is incapable of fighting and winning against many potential adversaries." People, this is not a saying of politicians, but an official statement from the US Air Force.
Vision is how the Air Force got to where it is today. Visibility is absolutely essential to maintaining an edge in future flight operations. A realistic assessment of the near-term threats that could prevent, if not eliminate, access to this future is also essential. While the future predictions are interesting, they don't address the dangers on the doorstep.
From a practical perspective, the best way to address the capabilities and capability challenges facing the US Air Force and Army today is to accelerate production of the F-35 as quickly as possible, and once development of the B-21 stealth bomber is complete, to accelerate its production. Along with Syed Musk, keep dreaming. We need it. Make your cars and missiles better and more accessible, but don't forget that you'll need a safe way to get there.
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